Question about drop rates

Enuo

Member
So as some of you probably know, I've been almost exclusively hunting Mil Lilies ever since we got the bonuses for the week, by repeating MA4B over and over...and over and over and over and OVER, so I can get myself a Psycho Wand.

But anyway, the normal drop rate for it is 1/204 from a Mil Lily. I've killed roughly 20 of them, probably a bit more than that, and have found nothing so far. My question is, what does the drop rate become when you're Good/Lucky/Super Lucky? I don't understand the percentage rate thing at all, and it would help to know just how much the odds increase when I do get a bonus like that. Does anyone know?
 

Dongra

Member
I think the maximum boost you can get to the drop rate from the luck feature is like 5%. That alone isn't really going to make a huge dent in the Psycho Wand drop rate.
 

Spuz

Without rain, nothing grows.
But as Tesco say, +'every little helps' or as I say 'it don't hurt'. So...Get spamming and after about 300 more mils, you'll still not have it probably. But don't give up...
 

NDW

03:US/Fodra:02-11
To understand drop rates, you must understand the formula for drop rates.

Drop Anything Rate (DAR) * Rare Drop Rate (RDR) = Drop Rate

Mil Lily's DAR is 100%.
Its RDR for Psycho Wand is 0.48828%

(100%) * (0.48828%) = 0.48828%
0.48828% = 0.0048828

Find the Egyptian fraction to see your results in the form of a fraction that has "1 / x" where x is commonly viewed upon on as "On average, I need to kill this many enemies to get this item".

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=egyptian+fraction+0.0048848

upload_2016-8-4_4-34-9.png

The first fraction is the only one you want to focus on.

Now let's figure out the RDR of Mil Lily's Psycho Wand with certain luck values:

1* Luck (+1% to RDR in Normal Mode, +1% to RDR in One Person Mode)

2* Luck (+3% to RDR in Normal Mode, +2% to RDR in One Person Mode)

3* Luck (+5% to RDR in Normal Mode, +3% to RDR in One Person Mode)


Let's assume you are hunting in Normal Mode. Here would be the different RDR values for each luck level:
0* = 0.0048828
1* = 0.0049316
2* = 0.0050292
3* = 0.0051269

1*:
upload_2016-8-4_4-43-1.png

2*:
upload_2016-8-4_4-43-43.png

3*:
upload_2016-8-4_4-44-40.png

These are all results for Classic / 1P PSO2 Drop Style.

NOTE: DAR will be higher when there is +25% from Milestone Rewards when activated and DAR will be lower when more players join a PSO2 Drop Style party.
 
Last edited:

CTB

JK hate paused, busy!
Sort of related - in all honesty I think the server's rare enemy rate (excluding Kondi) is too high. It was never proven (on account of, well, you couldn't) but most people on ST agreed that the enemy rate was likely lowered from V3 with the removal of piping. I couldn't do TTF on Sega to 80 without hitting at least one rare enemy, something I have done here...three times now...eugh
 

Enuo

Member
To understand drop rates, you must understand the formula for drop rates.

Drop Anything Rate (DAR) * Rare Drop Rate (RDR) = Drop Rate

Mil Lily's DAR is 100%.
Its RDR for Psycho Wand is 0.48828%

(100%) * (0.48828%) = 0.48828%
0.48828% = 0.0048828

Find the Egyptian fraction to see your results in the form of a fraction that has "1 / x" where x is commonly viewed upon on as "On average, I need to kill this many enemies to get this item".

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=egyptian+fraction+0.0048848

View attachment 1517

The first fraction is the only one you want to focus on.

Now let's figure out the RDR of Mil Lily's Psycho Wand with certain luck values:

1* Luck (+1% to RDR in Normal Mode, +1% to RDR in One Person Mode)

2* Luck (+3% to RDR in Normal Mode, +2% to RDR in One Person Mode)

3* Luck (+5% to RDR in Normal Mode, +3% to RDR in One Person Mode)


Let's assume you are hunting in Normal Mode. Here would be the different RDR values for each luck level:
0* = 0.0048828
1* = 0.0049316
2* = 0.0050292
3* = 0.0051269

1*:
View attachment 1519

2*:
View attachment 1520

3*:
View attachment 1521

These are all results for Classic / 1P PSO2 Drop Style.

NOTE: DAR will be higher when there is +25% from Milestone Rewards when activated and DAR will be lower when more players join a PSO2 Drop Style party.
That answers my question exactly, even if I don't completely get the formula behind it. So 1/196 is the absolute best you can get... Damn.

I'm not gonna give up though.
 

NDW

03:US/Fodra:02-11
I find Delbiter or Gibbles easier for hunting Psycho Wand if you factor in +25% DAR and +25% Rare Enemy Appearance Rate.

Psycho Wand Drop Rates said:
Mil Lily
(1/80360) = (1/196) * (1/410)

Delbiter & Gibbles
(1/9601)

On average, you'd have to kill over 8.36x the amount of Ob Lilies to get a Psycho Wand drop compared to the amount of Delbiters or Gibbles killed.
 

Enuo

Member
I find Delbiter or Gibbles easier for hunting Psycho Wand if you factor in +25% DAR and +25% Rare Enemy Appearance Rate.



On average, you'd have to kill over 8.36x the amount of Ob Lilies to get a Psycho Wand drop compared to the amount of Delbiters or Gibbles killed.
I think you're right. Problem is, we can't change IDs currently. I had Bluefull at one point, and like an idiot, I thought changing to Purplenum was a better idea for the wand. I regret it now. =3
 
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