Miku
vocaloid
Say you were going to hunt some Hildetorrs in the forest. And of course you have multiple IDs to choose from, where you can either go for a Heaven Punisher or get 102 Frozen Shooters in the same amount of runs, based on the drop rate ratio of essential 1/204 vs 1/2 being 102:1. Now, I've created a program that will generate the stats of the 102 Frozen Shooters and the stats of the HP and for extra funzies, the run of it I'll use for this hasn't even been run yet. So not even I know which is the better option.
So if it were up to you, which would you take? The 102 Frozen Shooters, or the 1 Heaven Punisher? I'll run my program and show the stats of all of them in like a week. But until then, I'm curious to see which option people would choose. And no, sorry, you don't actually get any of these items lol.
For anyone wondering how it works, the program is based on my best understanding of the drop % chances. It works like this, and someone please correct me if this is wrong, but I've fun enough tests that it does show a very strong p-value with the distribution from the game, so it's statistically likely to be correct.
So each nonzero percentage on a rare is going to come from pattern 6 of this table: http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=721
It doesn't matter where the rare is found, each nonzero percentage will always follow that same pattern. As in, any rare weapon with hit has a 1/10000 chance to have max hit. Now you'll probably wonder why you don't have any yet with those odds, but as you can probably figure out, a lot of them don't come with hit. Which is where the next part comes in. For this, albeit far less important, it actually does matter where the weapon is found, and each area has its own chances of percentages in different areas. Although the hit % chance is always at 5% anywhere on Ultimate so you don't need to change where you're hunting that rare weapon to try to increase your hit % chances. So the thing is, in the forest, the chances are split like this:
None: 25%
Native: 30%
A. Beast: 19%
Machine: 13%
Dark: 8%
Hit: 5%
And you get 3 rolls, but if multiple rolls land in the same category, all but one in that category are ignored. They don't get rerolled or anything. So there's really the following chances of having a percentage in each such area:
Native: 65.7%
A. Beast: 46.8559%
Machine: 34.1497%
Dark: 22.1312%
Hit: 13.2625%
And the percentages other than hit will change with other areas, but hit is always that same percentage no matter what area you're in as it always has 5% in the table.
So with all that in mind, you can expect about 13.52775 of the FSs to have hit, but only a 13.2625% chance for the HP to have hit.
Given all of this information, which option do you choose?
So if it were up to you, which would you take? The 102 Frozen Shooters, or the 1 Heaven Punisher? I'll run my program and show the stats of all of them in like a week. But until then, I'm curious to see which option people would choose. And no, sorry, you don't actually get any of these items lol.
For anyone wondering how it works, the program is based on my best understanding of the drop % chances. It works like this, and someone please correct me if this is wrong, but I've fun enough tests that it does show a very strong p-value with the distribution from the game, so it's statistically likely to be correct.
So each nonzero percentage on a rare is going to come from pattern 6 of this table: http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=721
It doesn't matter where the rare is found, each nonzero percentage will always follow that same pattern. As in, any rare weapon with hit has a 1/10000 chance to have max hit. Now you'll probably wonder why you don't have any yet with those odds, but as you can probably figure out, a lot of them don't come with hit. Which is where the next part comes in. For this, albeit far less important, it actually does matter where the weapon is found, and each area has its own chances of percentages in different areas. Although the hit % chance is always at 5% anywhere on Ultimate so you don't need to change where you're hunting that rare weapon to try to increase your hit % chances. So the thing is, in the forest, the chances are split like this:
None: 25%
Native: 30%
A. Beast: 19%
Machine: 13%
Dark: 8%
Hit: 5%
And you get 3 rolls, but if multiple rolls land in the same category, all but one in that category are ignored. They don't get rerolled or anything. So there's really the following chances of having a percentage in each such area:
Native: 65.7%
A. Beast: 46.8559%
Machine: 34.1497%
Dark: 22.1312%
Hit: 13.2625%
And the percentages other than hit will change with other areas, but hit is always that same percentage no matter what area you're in as it always has 5% in the table.
So with all that in mind, you can expect about 13.52775 of the FSs to have hit, but only a 13.2625% chance for the HP to have hit.
Given all of this information, which option do you choose?
