does anyone know what the limtations of coren are?

J

jellymouse

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not sure if this belongs in support or general
based on some preliminary gambling at corent, and probably over 3 mil now spent, I got two rares immediately and then nothing for the rest of the probably 2.8+ mil spent.
according to the wiki, the payout should be, on average, 5.55(18%) draws per charted prize at 100,000 spent.

Is the limit one chance per day? If so, I encountered a bug with two back to back payouts.
Is it a limit of successful payouts per week or month?
Is there some kind of bad RNG that wins every time on certain beats?

The wiki isn't really clear on the deeper maths behind coren, but it's very clear that <6 draws on average is probably not accurate to the in-game experience.
Does anyone have more experience with this mechanic in-depth?
 
jellymouse said:
Is the limit one chance per day? If so, I encountered a bug with two back to back payouts.
Is it a limit of successful payouts per week or month?
Is there some kind of bad RNG that wins every time on certain beats?
Click to expand...
Nope. Coren just hates everyone's guts and doesn't actually want to give up his rares, so the odds are never in your favor - especially if you're aiming for a specific rare for that day. The fact that you got two rares in a row on the first two rolls was just very, very lucky.

Best to think of him as more of a meseta sink than a reliable means of acquiring rares.
 
18%(4+6+8) should be pretty reasonable odds of finding at least something...
I wonder how the randomization is performed specifically?
 
jellymouse said:
18%(4+6+8) should be pretty reasonable odds of finding at least something...
I wonder how the randomization is performed specifically?
Click to expand...
What you're not thinking of is how its actually a 82% chance at getting nothing.
Much higher odds.
 
The issue here isn't Coren's odds, it's understanding binomial probability. Sure, the chance of getting no rare drops after spending 3 million meseta is a little under 0.26%, but that means it's still possible just the same as finding two rares right off the bat--a 3.2% chance. In the same way that you might expect to get really lucky sometimes, you have to also expect you'll get really unlucky sometimes. If you collect data over a very large number of trials, it will balance out to around 18%/82%.
 
Chronos Notashi said:
Nope. Coren just hates everyone's guts and doesn't actually want to give up his rares, so the odds are never in your favor - especially if you're aiming for a specific rare for that day. The fact that you got two rares in a row on the first two rolls was just very, very lucky.

Best to think of him as more of a meseta sink than a reliable means of acquiring rares.
Click to expand...
Or as mew likes to tell new ppl..."Coren has an awesome list of items.....but Chances of you getting what you WANT are......Comical...."
 
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